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Fed watchers expect the American central bank to raise the federal funds rate by 0.25 or 0.50 percent.
The CME Fed Watch tool has notched up to anticipating a 0.50 interest rate hike in the Fed Funds rate, with a 72% probability of at least a 0.25 hike at the next meeting.
The Yahoo Finance Live team reported Monday:
The Fed has a big decision to make at its next meeting on May 2 to 3. The probability of another 0.25% hike is now at 72%. And that’s according to the CME Fed watch tool.”
Bitcoin price and other crypto exchange markets will have the rest of April to digest the news, as well as equity, bond, and other liquid financial markets.
Fed Funds Rate Hike Seen Up Ahead to Start May
The Fed is likely to raise rates due to a sustained show of strength in U.S. job markets. Jesse Wheeler of CNBC’s Morning Consult said:
That jobs report came in very strong and continues to show how strong and resilient the U.S. labor market continues to be. I think that headline figure, the 236,000 jobs, albeit a slowdown from the pace we’ve seen over the last six months, is still strong enough coupled with that 3.5% unemployment figure to potentially warrant another rate hike here at the start of May.”
The Federal Reserve’s twin mandate from Congress is to maximize U.S. employment figures and stabilize dollar prices.
Wall Street Meanders, Bitcoin Price Surges
Wall Street coasted through Monday’s move flat, edging slightly higher over the day. Blue chip tech stocks struggled with Apple, Alphabet, and Tesla shares sliding over the day and pulling down the NASDAQ Composite:
“[The S&P 500 Index] rose 0.1% to 4,109.11. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 101.23 points, or 0.3%, to 33,586.52. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite inched lower by 0.03% to close at 12,084.36.”
Meanwhile, the bitcoin price surged some 7% Monday as news of the May interest rate hike spread. The rally smashed resistance at $30,000 and notched a 10-month BTC.
There’s no telling for sure if the rally was because of or despite the federal interest rate hike ahead. Higher interest rates could put a squeeze on the flow of liquidity that helps pump the bitcoin price higher along with other investment assets.
The stock market tends to decline in response to rate increases because it affects margins on investments. If stocks capitulate to a more hawkish financial regime in May, crypto prices could take a spill with them.
It’s also worth noting that BTC remains largely unfazed by the latest release of the CPI numbers for March, remaining firmly above $30K, at the time of this writing.